Online Football Odds
Sunday Night Football Preview, Cowboys visit Green Bay
2010-11-05
Sportsbook.com Cowboys vs. Packers Betting Odds: Green Bay -7.5, Total: 45.5
Dallas tries to avoid its first five-game losing streak since 1997 as it travels to Lambeau Field for a Sunday night matchup with Green Bay. The injury-riddled Packers are coming off an impressive 9-0 shutout over the Jets and are looking for their third straight win before their bye week arrives Monday. Dallas is the biggest disappointment in the NFL so far tallying a 1-6 record both straight-up and against the spread (ATS).
Dallas has allowed 33.5 PPG during the four-game losing skid, allowing its opponents to gain an average of 151 rushing YPG. Dallas also has 11 turnovers in the four-game stretch and just 3.8 yards per carry. The good news is that backup QB Jon Kitna has played pretty well in place of injured starter Tony Romo. The 38-year-old Kitna completed nearly 70 percent of his passes and threw for 379 yards in last week’s loss to Jacksonville. All three of Kitna’s interceptions bounced off receivers’ hands. He also threw for 187 yards, two touchdowns and no picks against the Giants two weeks ago when Romo broke his collarbone.
Green Bay’s defense has been stellar as of late, pitching a 9-0 shutout over the Jets last Sunday. The Packers have allowed just 17.0 PPG this year (fourth-best in NFL) and rank third in the league in sacks (24) and interceptions (12). NFL sacks leader Clay Matthews is expected to play despite being held out of practice with a calf injury. QB Aaron Rodgers will be without his No. 2 receiver Donald Driver, who is suffering from a quadriceps injury. This isn’t a major loss considering Driver did not have a catch in his past two games.
Last season, the teams played a defensive slugfest in Lambeau, with the Packers winning 17-7 on two fourth-quarter touchdowns and three Dallas turnovers.
These two NFL betting trends show why Dallas will fail to cover the point spread yet again.
Play On - Any team (GREEN BAY) - good team (outgain opp. by 0.4 to 1 YPP) against an average team (+/- 0.4 YPP), after being outgained by opp by 100 or more total yards last game. (77-35 since 1983.) (68.8%, +38.5 units. Rating = 3*).
Mike McCarthy is 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) off a non-conference game as the coach of GREEN BAY.
The average score was GREEN BAY 26.8, OPPONENT 19.2 - (Rating = 3*).
61 percent of Sportsbook.com bettors are backing the ‘over’ and here is why:
The last 13 times these teams squared off, the ‘over’ covered 10 times.
Wade Phillips is 14-3 OVER (+10.7 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 as the coach of DALLAS. The average score was DALLAS 25.4, OPPONENT 25.9 - (Rating = 3*).
For more NFL betting trends and to check out the NFL Week 9 betting odds, head over to Sportsbook.com now.
NFL: NY JETS vs. SAN DIEGO (4:30 PM ET, CBS)
2010-01-15
The NFL’s version of the “Final Four” will be set following the last playoff matchup of the weekend from San Diego, where the red-hot Chargers will entertain the almost-as-hot Jets. The hosts opened as 9-point favorites at Sportsbook.com, but cooler heads have since prevailed and the pointspread now reads San Diego -7. That price seems to have done its job of balancing the betting action, as the BETTING TRENDS page shows 51% of players supporting the favorites, and 49% on the side of the dogs.
The Jets won their playoff game at Cincinnati with the same recipe that has defined their season, controlling the offensive line of scrimmage and dominant defense. It will take that and more to pull a second straight upset at San Diego. The Chargers have won 11 straight games and no team is hotter, particularly offensively, as they scored 20 or more points in every game. The Jets were held below that mark on seven occasions, thus will be looking to keep the scoring down on Sunday. HC Norv Turner owns a 9-2 ATS mark as home chalk of 7.5-14 points in his stay at San Diego. New York is 6-3 SU & ATS on the road and last won in San Diego in the ’05 wildcard round, 20-17.
Of the four teams to earn a first-round bye in this year’s playoffs, it can be argued none is more deserving than San Diego. The Chargers, winners of four straight AFC West titles, take an 11-game win streak into Sunday’s divisional round playoff game against the New York Jets at Qualcomm Stadium.
Gang Green earned this cross-country trip with a 24-14 victory in Cincinnati, marking its second win over the Bengals in six days. Rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez (12-for-15, 182 yards, one touchdown) and rookie running back Shonn Greene (135 yards rushing, one touchdown) starred for rookie head coach Rex Ryan, who praised the efforts of kicker/punter Jay Feely (one field goal, three extra points, three punts inside the 20) in his post-game news conference.
No disrespect to the Bengals, but the road for the Jets gets a lot tougher now.
Head coach Norv Turner’s team hasn’t been saddled with a loss since Oct. 19 when it came up short at home on Monday night against Denver and fell three-and-a-half games behind the Broncos. Six days later, the Chargers spanked Kansas City by 30 in Arrowhead and were well on their way.
San Diego is 3-3 in the playoffs over the last three seasons with an appearance in the AFC Championship Game two years ago and is as talented as any of the remaining clubs.
Is it time for Turner and Philip Rivers to get over the hump? There isn’t much more for Rivers to do except win a ring. Since taking the reins of San Diego’s offense from Drew Brees in 2006, he’s passed for an average of 3,700 yards per season with a touchdown-to-interception ratio of 105-to-44. He’s facing a New York defense that ranked atop the league in passing yards (153.7 per game) and passing scores allowed (eight) and held Cincinnati to 110 net yards passing in the last two weeks.
The key matchups to watch are Jets cornerback Darrelle Revis against Chargers wide receiver Vincent Jackson and New York’s ground attack against San Diego’s shaky—20th-ranked—run defense. Jackson has a six-inch height advantage on Revis, but he sat out the regular-season finale against Washington with a sore Achilles’ and will have a tough time winning the duel at less than 100 percent.
PREDICTION: The Chargers scored at least 20 points in every regular-season game and averaged 30 during the current winning streak. Turner doesn’t have the best January resume, but there’s no debating which of these teams has more horses in the barn. Throw in some jetlag and Sanchez & Co. really have their work cut out.
SAN DIEGO 24, N.Y. JETS 13
NFL: CLEVELAND at BUFFALO (8:35 PM ET, ESPN)
2008-11-14
Cleveland isn’t coming off of a bye week, but it might feel like it, having rested 11 days between their Thursday night loss to Denver and this Monday night contest at Buffalo. Both teams are struggling, with Cleveland having lost three of its L4 games, and Buffalo dropping four of five, including a big one last week in New England. They’ll look to rebound as a 5-point favorite in front of what should be a juiced up home crowd.
The Bills are still in playoff contention, and this contest will start a 3-game stretch against teams that have combined for just six wins in ’08. They’ll also have a couple of trend angles in their favor. First, Buffalo is 11-2 ATS vs. teams with a losing record under Dick Jauron. Second, they are 22-10 ATS in their last 32 November home games. The favorite has won and covered the last three games of this head-to-head series.
As far as Mr. Quinn's long anticipated first game at quarterback in the NFL, Brady earned an 'A' for the Browns last Thursday night but the rest of the bunch got a failing grade as Cleveland slipped further out of playoff contention with a crippling 34-30 loss to visiting Denver.
The Browns' second collapse in five days was no fault of Quinn, who completed 23 of 35 passes for 239 yards and two touchdowns and no turnovers. Both scoring tosses went to tight end Kellen Winslow, who had 11 catches for 111 yards. Cleveland also had a season-high 160 yards rushing, however, its defense was torched by Jay Cutler and allowed 564 total yards-the second-most produced in Broncos history. Barring injury, there's no turning back for the Browns. Quinn's the starter; Derek Anderson's the backup and likely trade bait during the offseason.
Sooner or later it had to happen, and the last straw came in Week 9 against Baltimore when Anderson threw an ill-advised, game-sealing interception that Terrell Suggs brought back for a touchdown. Only 25 years old, and with a Pro Bowl under his belt, there should be an active market for Anderson but the Browns won't give him away.
In Buffalo, Quinn will face a defense that allowed only eight passing touchdowns in nine games. But the Bills, 5-4 after last week's 20-10 loss at New England and mired in a three-game funk, are having trouble getting to the quarterback (14 sacks) and forcing turnovers (12).
The Bills have won only once since September and they've cracked 20 points just once during the same span. Many fans in Buffalo are lobbying for more carries for running back Marshawn Lynch, who has yet to surpass 100 yards in a game in 2008 after doing so three times in 13 starts as a rookie. However, he does have six touchdowns.
Last year's meeting between these teams was a classic. Played in a blizzard in Cleveland, the Browns won 8-0 on two Phil Dawson field goals and a safety. Winds gusted to 40 miles per hour, and Anderson and Trent Edwards combined to complete 22 of 57 passes (38.6 percent) but neither turned the ball over. The victory gave the Browns an 8-5 lead in the all-time regular-season series.
PREDICTION - For Quinn, all that really mattered last week was the final score. He handled the spotlight well and should have no problems in what will be his first pro start on the road. The Bills won't be blanked by the Browns this time, but they'll have to be sharp on offense to get the job done. BUFFALO 28, CLEVELAND 13
NFLPS: Seattle and San Diego Strictly C-List Affair
2008-08-25
Preseason football is hard enough to figure for even an astute bettor. Take away the stars in what is supposed to be the most important of the four August adventures and betting football games like this are a real conundrum. Such are the prospects facing bettors for the Monday night preseason football game on ESPN between San Diego and Seattle.
Seattle quarterback Matt Hasselbeck has been bothered with a bad back and is questionable for Monday night’s contest, meaning back-up Seneca Wallace would be the starter and third-stringer Charlie Fyre would be moping up for the Seahawks in SoCal.
Also among those likely missing for Seattle are wide receivers Bobby Engram and Deion Branch, along with offensive linemen Sean Locklear and Chris Spencer.
San Diego’s big three highest profile players will not see action. LaDainian Tomlinson hasn’t played in an exhibition game since Howard Dean was a relevant Democratic name. Tight end Antonio Gates returned to the practice field this week from toe injury, but is not ready and Shawne Merriman is telling anyone who will listen he has career-threatening knee injury. Hopefully Merriman is overstating prognosis like he has been known to do in the past. Though not a huge name, center Nick Hardwick is a big key to Chargers offensive line and is still rehabbing bad foot and will not play here or likely season opener against Carolina.
So why bother to watch you ask? First it’s football, which by and large is good enough reason. There are several storylines that will play out, each interesting in their own right. Starting with Seattle, arguably the best player in camp the entire time is seventh round draft choice Justin Forsett, out of Cal. Forsett has been a quick, shifty runner and a solid punt returner. Seattle invested in Julius Jones and T.J. Duckett and neither has distinguished them selves. Holdover Maurice Morris was the best running back for the Seahawks last year and nothing has changed by local observers. Forsett was listed at 5’8 194, however is closer to 5’6. With cuts coming within hours of the end of this contest, coach Mike Holmgren will have difficult decision to make for a team that is 12-3 ATS in the next to last game of the preseason.
San Diego is a 6-point home favorite at Sportsbook.com and is 19-12-1 ATS when favored. Coach Norv Turner and his staff have been pleased with the play of rookie running back Jacob Hester and pleasantly surprised by undrafted free agent FB Mike Tolbert, who has made a strong case to earn a roster spot. Another rookie, CB Antoine Cason continues to play well, showing the same exact instincts as ball-hawk that he showcased in college. Right tackle Jeromey Clary might be playing himself out of right tackle starter position if he plays like he did against St. Louis.
These teams have met four of the last five years in preseason, with the Seahawks 3-2 SU and ATS. Coach Holmgren is notorious amongst bettors for losing against the spread after a win with 4-13 ATS record.
ESPN will telecast the last nationally televised preseason contest and the total of 40 might be best action play. Seattle is 6-0 OVER as an underdog, with average score being over 50 total points. The Chargers are 13-3 OVER after allowing three points or less in the first half last game, with average total score of better than 45 points.
Kickoff is at 8 Eastern.
StatFox Power Line – San Diego by 1
NFL - Dallas @ Detroit (1:00 PM ET – FOX)
2007-12-07
Dallas comes off its biggest win of the season over Green Bay and has won six straight games to gain control of the NFC. Detroit has lost four in a row and has fallen out of the playoff picture altogether. At opposite ends of the momentum spectrum, the teams will meet from Ford Field on Sunday. The Cowboys are a double-digit road favorite.
This will be the third straight time that the Lions are an underdog at home. They are 0-2 in the L2 outings but 5-3 ATS in that role under Rod Marinelli. In the current four game SU & ATS skid, Detroit has yielded 31.5 PPG. That obviously is a concern against a Cowboys team that has surpassed the 30-point mark eight times in ’07 and leads the NFC with 32.9 PPG. Dallas is a perfect 5-0 SU on the road (4-1 ATS), but will be playing its first away game in four weeks.
That 10-win season QB Jon Kitna envisioned is becoming increasingly more difficult to comprehend, just like it seemed back in August. In order to make the quota that would likely get the Lions into the playoffs, overcoming the talented Cowboys would have to be viewed as a must-win game. If the pass defense had problems with Green Bay on Thanksgiving, one could only imagine what an experienced crew like Dallas can do. Based on recent efforts, WR Roy Williams has to make up his mind if he wants to be an elite pass catcher or in the next rung below.
Dallas goes on the road for the first time in a month after three consecutive games at Texas Stadium. The Cowboys have a dynamic, multi-faceted offense that can hurt an inferior foe in a magnitude of ways. The starting receivers are a thing of beauty. Few backs in the NFL run with the determination of RB Marion Barber and QB Tony Romo is always having a good time as the field general. The defense will play in spurts against more qualified offenses.
Keys to the Game
Detroit OC Mike Martz attacked the Cowboys’ secondary and used the draw play as its weapon on the ground. The pass rush can be lethal for Dallas and they will need to collapse the pocket on Kitna. Romo and the offense should move the ball expertly against the Detroit defense. The Cowboys are 7-0 ATS when they gain 400 or more total yards over the last two seasons. Dallas will have more rest after the Green Bay confrontation; however, the Boys have a division game with Philadelphia up next.
Trends
~ Dallas is 4-14 ATS as a road favorite of 7.5 to 10 points.
~ Detroit is 2-9 ATS when they rush for less than 75 yards over the last two seasons.
StatFox Edge – Lions cover